A Morphological Analysis Tool for Complex Future-Oriented Scenario Researches

Format: Papers, RSD5, Topic: Methods & Methodology

Mehdi Mozuni and Wolfgang Jonas

Projecting a concept derived from an analytical level is a complicated but established process in innovation management. However, conventional design processes will face methodological obstacles, when a future system with rapid changing key factors is addressed, since: (1) the time-scale, in which the problem space is introduced, addresses users that are non-existent yet; and (2) continuing changes in key factors and their interactions make the process incapable of conceiving the relationships and delivering synthesizable data. In this case, the rational core, upon which the projection is established, suffers itself from the lack of substantiation. Morphological Analysis and Delphi technique are stablished tools, each having known advantages and disadvantages in the foresight research. We suggest that a morphology-based Delphi technique can support the process of projecting the future in innovation-demanded large problem complexes. In addition, these two tools can mutually cover each other’s theoretical and functional deficits by illustrating transparent value-based arguments in a modifiable iterative manner..

Citation Data

Author(s): OCTOBER 2016
Title: A Morphological Analysis Tool for Complex Future-Oriented Scenario Researches
Published in: Proceedings of Relating Systems Thinking and Design
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Symposium Dates:
First published: 20 September 2016
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Proceedings of Relating Systems Thinking and Design (ISSN 2371-8404) are published annually by the Systemic Design Association, a non-profit scholarly association leading the research and practice of design for complex systems: 3803 Tønsberg, Norway (922 275 696).


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